The current low on the SRW today has been $4.92 3/4: this level is critical in three technical ways in my view. It matches the 5/21 high (which became new support and swing objective launch-point for the last move higher (2) It is right at the 200-Day Moving Avg. on this daily continuation chart (3) It takes us back to the old resistance down-trend line, which also has now become support.
The question I have for the market to answer for me this week is: do you want to correct the overbought oscillators on the daily chart, even with continued historic drought in Australian wheat, concerns developing in the Russian wheat crop, and excessive moisture in the HRW wheat crop here in the U.S.? If the answer is “Yes”, then I’d recommend we look to the next major moving average support of $4.73 in SRW–which could pull corn down toward filling the gap at the $4.05 area in lead-month corn futures (see daily corn continuation chart below).
Hypothetical Disclosure—HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. General Risk Disclosure—There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options, therefore you should carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. The information above is not meant to be advice to buy or sell futures and options. Options Risk Disclosure—The purchaser of options should be aware that he could lose all premium paid for such options as well as any commissions and fees. Further, purchasing deep-out-of-the-money options have a remote chance of becoming profitable. The writer or seller of options should be aware that there is unlimited risk and could result in such seller being required to maintain a futures position with any associated liabilities for margin. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information Disclaimer—The information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. Their accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed. Any decision to purchase or sell based upon such information is the responsibility of the person authorizing the transaction. Prices could already have factored-into them the seasonality or cycles of the market. Copyright, 2019 Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC