crop conditions drop vs. last week but were within trade expectations: i am doubtful on this given storms & dry weather on both sides of the corn-belt
Did Nebraska Corn Conditions really improve by 3 points in Good-Excellent Conditions vs. last week? I have quite a few clients who would likely debate that one…
meanwhile–the evening weather models turn-off back drier on the latest run
We’ll see what the EURO Model says tonight: but if it turns-off drier also, then we can likely assume that heat could build back into the Corn-Belt by early next week. With this in mind, I’d like to see a lot of short-covering here tonight and tomorrow: so much short-covering that we turn the market back toward a “long momentum”. But if I don’t see this, be prepared for additional hedges–puts in soybeans especially. It’s more difficult to do puts with corn given the spike in the option volatility we saw today–see the chart below. As for wheat, I’m still recommending selling off the combine given better cash-basis: but instead of re-owning in 30 days or so as suggested on my last copy, I’d want you to be ready to re-own within 10 days of your combine sales.
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