Heard Live Every Other Saturday Morning On Atchison’s KAIR-93.7 Radio Saturday Morning at 9:00 AM CST
MAY 31, 2020
MAY 15, 2020
MARCH 27, 2020
FEBRUARY 21, 2020
FEBRUARY 14, 2020
FEBRUARY 8, 2020
FEBRUARY 1, 2020
JANUARY 25, 2020
JANUARY 18, 2020
JANUARY 11, 2020
Hypothetical Disclosure—HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. General Risk Disclosure—There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options, therefore you should carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. The information above is not meant to be advice to buy or sell futures and options. Options Risk Disclosure—The purchaser of options should be aware that he could lose all premium paid for such options as well as any commissions and fees. Further, purchasing deep-out-of-the-money options have a remote chance of becoming profitable. The writer or seller of options should be aware that there is unlimited risk and could result in such seller being required to maintain a futures position with any associated liabilities for margin. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information Disclaimer—The information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. Their accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed. Any decision to purchase or sell based upon such information is the responsibility of the person authorizing the transaction. Prices could already have factored-into them the seasonality or cycles of the market. Copyright, 2020 Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC
SEPTEMBER 10, 2019–VIDEO CLIP FROM USDA OFFICIAL AT TODAY’S BIG IRON SHOW IN FARGO, ND
In the clip below, Mr. Barbre talks about the problems with the USDA understanding the practicality of how programs work and how they are trying to fix it. What this video doesn’t capture is his comments talking about how the USDA-RMA isn’t thinking about Prevent-Plant in terms of acres yet; they are only considering it in terms of dollar losses. Therefore, FSA doesn’t have a total grasp of acres–per his comments and how I and others there understood his comments. This suggests to me that there is still much to be answered in terms of 2019 Springtime Acres Planted this year. All of today’s conversations can be found at the RRFN link below, including the USDA conversation as well as the marketing panel I was participating in after the close today.
https://www.rrfn.com/podcast_category/big-iron-seminars/
SEPTEMBER 9, 2019–I29 CORRIDOR DRIVE TO FARGO KEEPS CROP SIZE A MAJOR QUESTION
continuing with the webinar theme, a few things stand-out–which I plan to discuss at tomorrow’s marketing panel at Big Iron. (1) After my drive today, I continue to believe that the US yield or harvested acres (or both) are likely to drop and be re-figured eventually by NASS. This afternoon’s crop conditions report on maturity supported this mindset I think; it also supported my comments about the pics below. (2) I spoke about the “green-ness” of this crop, and that the satellites were creating more talk of higher yields…and I wondered if that would go backwards as the strip of dryness started to shift the satellite colors. Today’s 2 point drop in corn conditions–in the states I pointed out in the webinar–support this as well. (3) World Stocks-Use & the US Dollar are likely to be just as important (if not more so) after Thursday’s report. We saw this, I believe, in the wheat-dollar relationship today; and we saw it also in the fact that Australia’s ABARES cut their wheat crop 9% from their June estimate. That’s it for tonight…Mike
- Pic 1: Ankle-high (ish) soybean field nearing Brookings SD exit. Such a green crop north of Sioux Falls, SD. And so variable nearly the whole trip up.
- Pic 2 & 4: Overpass shot of a very dry & pot-holed field that represented very well the crop from essentially Atchison all the way up to Sioux City/north of Omaha.
- Pic 3: The issue of prevent planted acres can’t get much more stark when you see irrigation pivots and nothing planted under them.
- Pic 5: The problem with dry-down on the crop was simply astounding to me, until I got north of I90…then the crop turned very green…and then it turned very yellow. As I got into Fargo, ND, at 4:30 PM CST today, it was raining fairly hard and the temperature was 60 degrees. How can this crop finish? I’m hoping to get some answers tomorrow at the farm show…
SEPTEMBER 7, 2019–WEEK-AHEAD & PRE-USDA REPORT WEBINAR
Hypothetical Disclosure—HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. General Risk Disclosure—There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options, therefore you should carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. The information above is not meant to be advice to buy or sell futures and options. Options Risk Disclosure—The purchaser of options should be aware that he could lose all premium paid for such options as well as any commissions and fees. Further, purchasing deep-out-of-the-money options have a remote chance of becoming profitable. The writer or seller of options should be aware that there is unlimited risk and could result in such seller being required to maintain a futures position with any associated liabilities for margin. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information Disclaimer—The information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. Their accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed. Any decision to purchase or sell based upon such information is the responsibility of the person authorizing the transaction. Prices could already have factored-into them the seasonality or cycles of the market. Copyright, 2019 Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC
