#1 The Video Below Captures, I Think, Very Well The Two Separate Schools of Thought In This Market Right Now; Where As I Am Looking Farther-Out, Shawn Was Looking Toward Weather For Row-Crops In August. In The Meantime, The Crops Are Likely Getting Hurt By This Line of Thinking.

#2 The Updated Models on Sunday Night Suggest Limited Rainfall For The Upper Midwest Region of The Dakotas-IA-MN Through Thursday. Better Potential For Rains Centered On The MO-IL Border Are Present. KS & NE Also Look To See Another System In Their Region At The Very End of the Model Run. You Can See The Latest GFS Run Below The Video. Another “Trade” Model I Utilize Is Suggesting About .5-.7″ For Des Moines Through Saturday Currently.

Putting The Two Together, It Appears To Me That We Have Returned To The Negative Demand Bias, and Now It’s Up To Monday’s Crop Conditions Report To See A Decline That Re-awakens The Supply Disruption Potential. It Would Also Be Very Nice To Start Seeing Some Bigger Weekly Export Inspections As Well, Which Come Out Late Monday Morning. I Think This Would Start To Shore-up Spot Prices Along The River, Such As We See The Sinking at Cincinnati In The Chart Below.

Finally, I Am About 4 Pages Away From Completing The Macro-Commodity Special Report; Clients & Subscribers Should Be Looking For That On Monday. –Thanks, Mike

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