END-OF-WEEK COMMODITY AUDIO COMMENTARY UPDATE w/EXTRA WEEK-AHEAD ANALYSIS:
AS WE LOOK TO NEXT WEEK, I CAN’T HELP BUT THINK THAT FRESH TARIFF NEWS IS LIKELY TO CROP-UP: MAYBE IN A MORE POSITIVE WAY OF A MAJOR DEAL BEING STRUCK (INDIA?). WITHOUT THIS, IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE TRADE WANTS TO BE MORE DEFENSIVE & PULL WEATHER PREMIUM OUT OF THE ROW-CROPS; BUT COULD WE SEE WHEAT SPOIL THE PARTY FOR THE “BEARS”? I THINK IT’S A BETTER THAN 50/50 CHANCE GIVEN THE ARTICLE BELOW RELATED TO RUSSIA, AND ALSO GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN KEY AREAS OF THE HRW WHEAT BELT JUST AS HARVEST SHOULD COMMENCE IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS OR SO.
LIVESTOCK COMMENTARY UPDATE BELOW w/GRAPHICS:
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE POST-HOLIDAY TRADE IN CATTLE & FEEDERS FINALLY MET MY EXPECTATIONS–DRIVEN HIGHER BY CASH STRENGTH AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONTINUED SHORT-BOUGHT PACKERS. MY PROBLEM WITH THIS RALLY, HOWEVER, WAS THAT THE MAJOR STIMULUS WAS THE FRESH SCREW-WORM NEWS OF THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER POTENTIALLY BEING CLOSED UNTIL CLOSER TO THE END OF THE YEAR. IN BOTH FATS AND FEEDERS WE SAW HIGHS THIS WEEK COME WITHIN $1-$2/CWT. APPROXIMATELY OF THE EARLIER MAY RECORD HIGHS…BUT WE DIDN’T SEE FRESH RECORD HIGHS ON THE SCREW-WORM NEWS. AND THAT CAUSES ME TO THINK THAT NEXT WEEK COULD BE VERY DEFENSIVE: ESPECIALLY IF WE DON’T GET SOME POSITIVE TARIFF NEWS & THE EQUITY MARKET DECLINE RESUMES. TAKE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE ANALYSIS BELOW FOR SOME BETTER DETAIL…
THE KEYS TO THE ABOVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUGGEST TO ME THAT THE CURE FOR RECORD PRICES OF BOTH DEMAND DESTRUCTION & SUPPLY-SIDE ENCOURAGEMENT–IS OCCURRING ON BOTH FRONTS. AND WHILE THE SUPPLY-SIDE IS UNDERSTOOD TO TAKE TIME, WE’VE STARTED TO SEE RETENTION OF THE U.S. HERD IN MY VIEW. SO THAT LEAVES THE GOAL OF RECORD PRICES CREATING DEMAND DESTRUCTION: I THINK THE ARTICLES ABOVE SUGGEST THAT WE’RE ON THE RIGHT TRACK ABOUT RECESSION & WALL STREET BEING THE TWO MAJOR FACTORS. BUT THERE IS A THIRD, MAYBE EVEN MORE IMPORTANT FACTOR: THE INTEREST RATE PAID ON CREDIT CARD DEBT AND FLOATING MORTGAGE DEBT. I’LL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS WELL, AS IT SEEMS THE WORLD IS WAKING-UP TO THE IDEA THAT SLOWER GROWTH AND SLOWER TRADE ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE MONEY TO BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE. BEEF IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS IN 2025.
NEW INVESTMENT PROGRAM & RECOMMENDATIONS COMING SOON! I’LL BE UNVEILING A NEW BUSINESS UNIT FOCUSING SOLELY UPON RETAIL-RELATED RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INVESTORS…SO STAY TUNED TO THIS SECTION FOR MORE IN THE MONTH OF JUNE!
JUST TO BE VERY CLEAR ABOUT THIS NEW BUSINESS UNIT: IT HAS NO TRACK-RECORD OR HISTORICAL BACK-TESTING ON THE RECOMMENDATIONS PUT-FORTH
All Charts Source: LSEG/Global Commodity Analytics Unless Otherwise Noted. Please Keep In Mind, The Charts Shown Could Be From Mid-Session & Not Reflect Closes/Settlements.
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