key point for this recommendation– Next Week Starts The 2026 Base-Price Configuration of Corn & Soybeans For Crop Insurance: It Seems Clear To Me That The Soy Has A Premium Thanks Mainly To The Expectations For Higher Domestic Bio-Diesel Usage & fresh rvo policy from epa (While Ethanol Looks No Better Than Flat In Demand). with this in mind, i’ve been working to come-up with a recommendation to protect the base price on nov. soybeans…
fyi: the last 2 sections of this blog will always be key releases that are easy to find, as well as the hedge recommendations tracker slide.
#1 Audio Commentary Laying-Out This Strategy & Major Points
#2 An Important Element Surrounding The Soybeans vs. Corn Is That The Old-Crop/New-Crop Spreads Are Not In A Deep Carrying-Charge For Soybeans…Again I Think This Is Mostly Thanks To The Soyoil
#3 How Long Can This Strength Last, Given The US-China Situation & The Seasonals In Both July & November Soybeans The Past 5 Years? The 3 Graphics Below Helped Me To Decide That The Risk-Reward In This Hedge Strategy Is Excellent Given The Fundamentals We Have To Contend With At This Point
REMEMBER WHAT WE’RE DOING HERE: We’re trying to keep the 2026 profit in-tact until we get planted. And the first step in doing this is to secure a high Base-Price for Crop Insurance in the month of February through Nov’26 Soybeans
#4 And Recall That My Acreage Assessment For 2026 Is For Heavier Soy Acres w/An Avg. Cash Price of $9.50. Recent Purdue Data I Just Un-Covered Helps Solidify This Analysis In That It’s Not Just About Rotation: It’s Also About Profitability The Past 3 Years (Quite Frankly, The Chart Below Shocked Me)
#5 I Think A Good Recommendation To Take Could Be To Utilize Short-Dated Options That Are Based-Off of November 2026 Futures And/Or A Combination of Old Crop Options & New-Crop Short-Dated Options…See CME Tool Sheet Below
#6 “BREAD-CRUMB BLOG”–2026 Commodity Expectations & Analysis At The End of 2025 + January 2026 Special Soybean Report
#7 Hedge-Tracker Recommendations Slide
