UPDATED! Hedge Tracker Slide In Section #5 & Supply-Demand Matrix In Section #6.
#1 Mid-Week Closing Commodity Video Analysis
#2 Thee Key Charts Not Discussed In Today’s Video
While U.S. Crop Weather Is Beginning To Become A Higher Priority To The Trade, I Still Believe The Major Thrust of The Overall Trend–The Longer-Term Trend–Is More Reliant Upon The Crude/Wheat Relationship As Well As The European Market vs. The US Market. And With August Corn Futures In Paris Soon To Expire, I Am Eager To See Whether The Spread Between Paris & Chicago Begin To Converge. Note On The Paris vs. CME Corn Chart How Similarly These Two Trend Most of The Time. Similarly, On The WTI-SRW Correlation Chart, Note How Much More Positively Correlated These Two Assets Have Become Since mid-2025…This Remains A Very Strong Relationship In Part Because Russia Is The World’s #1 Wheat Exporter & #2 Diesel Exporter. Be Sure To View The Video In The Next Section.
While We Didn’t Discuss It In Today’s Video, w/Packer Margins Improving To The Best In About A Month, We See How The Live Cattle Also Tested A Key Trendline (Or Came Very Close To It) In The Recent Push To The Downside From The Start of This Week’s Trade. Here, Too, It Seems To Me That The Fundamentals & Technicals Are Currently Very Much In “Sync” w/One Another…That Suggests We Take The Technicals “Seriously”
#3 Great Video On Russia’s Grain Harvest & Supply-Chain Disruption: Economics 101 Suggest That This Supply Is Held More Captive & Will Cost More To Get To The Open Market…Allowing-For A Longer Demand Window For U.S. Supplies??? Similar To 2022???
#4 Sticking-With The Black Sea Crops, I’ll Be Watching Closely Ukraine’s Moisture Levels & Weather Next Week: As Drought Level Forecasts Show Worsening Conditions, I’ll Be Watching Vegetative Health. Below Is Our “Benchmark”
The Map Above Shows Current VHI–Vegetative Health Index–Conditions: I’ll Be Eager To See What It May Look Like If The Drought Intensity Map For A Week From Now Comes Through On The Forecast
#5 —HEDGE RECOMMENDATIONS/HEDGE TRACKER SLIDE–Note: Mid-July Recommendation For 10% Additional Hedge In ’25 & ’26 Grains/Soy Not Reflected Yet…Will Update This Week
#6 —2026/27 U.S. Supply-Demand Matrix & Breakeven Levels—
#7 Previous Analysis– Major Blogs And/Or Reports-Updates In Case You Missed Them
APRIL THRU FEBRUARY 2026 IMPORTANT BLOGS ON SOYBEAN HEDGE ANALYSIS
