9.20.26 GRAIN & SOY HEDGERS SPECIAL REPORT: We’re Working Toward Getting More ’26 & ’27 Hedges In Place–Wanting To See Another Move Higher By Month-End To Hedge Into
#1 Closing Audio Commentary w/AOA’s Susan Littlefield: A Great Exchange w/Susan As Usual
#2 Top 2 Charts I’ll Be Monitoring After US-China Trade Summit: All Three of These Assets Are Intertwined In Their Trends–A Strong US Dollar Works Against Investment Demand (Especially Given The FED Rate Hike) & Works Against U.S. Export Demand
#3 Other Major Charts I’ll Be Watching After The U.S.-China Summit
Recall That, When President Trump’s Major Trade-Economic-Foreign Policy of Weakening The US Dollar By Taking-On China’s Trade Imbalance, Tariffs & Monetary Policy Were Effectively Working To Weaken The US Dollar And Create More Inflationary Pressures To Commodities. It Was Also During This Time That The Gold Was Rallying w/Strengthening Inflation. In Addition, Gold “Bulls” Were Beginning To Price-In US Dollar De-Basement. But If the US Dollar Rallies After The US-China Summit, I Could See The Gold Falling Even More w/Longer-Term Long Position Holders Exiting Their Positions. But If The Chinese Yuan Rallies Post-Summit, This Could Cause The US Dollar To Resume Its Depreciation–And This Could Bring-in Fresh Long Positions Into Gold In My View.
China’s Inflation–Especially Food Inflation–Remains Very Weak; In Fact We See In The Chart Below How It Has Actually Weakened In Trend Since The CoVID-19 Peak.
Crush Margins In China Are Beginning To Be Impacted By The Higher Soybean Prices.
#4 The Charts In Sections #2 & #3 Will Help Define What Cash River Bids Here In The U.S. Does As We Progress Through Harvest, As Well As Northern Hemisphere Post-Harvest
Collectively, I See All Of These Charts Above As Representations of Commodity Demand–Be It Investment And/Or Actual Demand For Commodities. Therefore, While The Cash Prices For Grains & Soy Could Remain Underpinned If Supplies Continue To Slip, The Demand-Side Is Likely To Work Against The Agr. Commodity Sector. Remember: The Current Rally Is Founded More Upon Inaccessible Supplies of Energy & Grains From Two of The Most Important Producing Regions In The World. We Can See By The Actions In New York Today That A Truce/Peace Mindset Has Been Established For Both The US-Iran Conflict As Well As The Russia-Ukraine Conflict. This, Coupled With Govt. Policies Trying To Get Prices Down Through Trade Barriers, Are The Major Causes For Why The US-China Summit–And The Demand That May Come As A Result of A Positive Outcome–Is So Important For Me.
#5 —HEDGE RECOMMENDATIONS/HEDGE TRACKER SLIDE
#6 —2026/27 U.S. Supply-Demand Matrix & Break-Even Levels— Corn Yield Lowered Slightly From August WASDE Report Estimates; I’ll Likely Lower Soybeans Next Month As The Hot-Dry Weather Is Likely To Curb Bean Size & # In Pods
