fyi: the last 2 sections of this blog will always be key releases that are easy to find, as well as the hedge recommendations tracker slide.
#1 WEEKLY VIDEO WRAP-UP: NE Soybean Board/KRVN
#2 US-INDIA TRADE DEAL: What We Know So Far…More Clarity Needed
If You Aren’t A High-Level Subscriber, Note On The Hedge Recommendation Slide at The End of This Post The 10% Sale In ’25 Soybeans Made Friday.
It Would Appear To Me That The U.S. Did Indeed Strike A Better Agri-Related Deal w/India Now That I’m Seeing Some More Details This Weekend–Specifically For DDGs & Soyoil Prospects (How About That Guy’s Hair!!).
And While We Clearly Didn’t See Any Positive Reaction In Corn or Soyoil, I Am Now Wondering If This Deal Was Seen As Supportive For The Soymeal, Specifically For U.S. Soymeal Exports Increasing…FYI, I’ll Take A Hard Look At The WASDE Numbers On Monday’s Copy.
#3 INTERNATIONAL CROP WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: I Continue To Monitor The Black Sea As Well As Argentina–The 2012 Comment In The Video Was In Part Due To The Story Below From Friday
I Continue To See Stories Relating To The Large Size of The Black Sea Crop, As Well As More Recently How The Latest Cold-Spell Hasn’t Damaged The Wheat In Either The Ukraine or Russia. And Yet, Coming From Ukraine Sources I Find The Story To The Left From Friday. Like We’ve Seen Over The Course of The Past Several Years, We’ll Have To See What The USDA Says About The Crops Over There In Their WASDE Update On Tuesday; They Have A Very Strong Tendency To Follow Russia’s Official Numbers, Just Like They Do China’s Official Numbers. It Is For These Reasons That I Mentioned the Multi-Month Highs In Feed/Wheat Prices In Both Europe As Well As Black Sea Ports.
#4 CATTLE PRICES SHOULD HAVE PERFORMED BETTER THIS PAST WEEK: While Little Technical Damage Was Done, The Lack of Upside Given Cash Fats Back Near $240 + A Dow @ 50,000 Has Me Watching This Complex Very Closely
What I Find Amazing About The Numbers To The Left, As Well As The Charts From USDA, Is That We Are Still Down Nearly 10% In YTD Beef Production Even Though Our Dressed Weights Eclipsed To Just 900# Last Week–But Note The Drop In Weights This Week? I’ve Been Talking About A Peak In Weights For About 2 Months; Are We Finally Seeing It? If So, That Suggests The Increased Likelihood of Cash Steers Remaining Above $230 Heading Into Summer In My View.
I’m Also Watching To See If Feeders Break Lower Ahead of Fats Given The Tightening Fat Cattle Supply; Clearly, Part of The Price Break Lower In Fats Specifically Was Probably Due to Shuttering of Slaughter Plants; But The Real Downside Potential To Me Remains To Be Seen From A Screwworm Announcement Of Some Sort. And I Think This Would Hurt The Feeders More In Futures Prices.
I’m Also Watching To See If Feeders Break Lower Ahead of Fats Given The Tightening Fat Cattle Supply; Clearly, Part of The Price Break Lower In Fats Specifically Was Probably Due to Shuttering of Slaughter Plants; But The Real Downside Potential To Me Remains To Be Seen From A Screwworm Announcement Of Some Sort. And I Think This Would Hurt The Feeders More In Futures Prices.
One Other Key Point Relating To The Charts To The Left: Note That Seasonally We See The Boxed-Beef Lead The Steer Prices Lower This Time of Year For The Next Month or So. I’ll Also Be On The Look-Out For The Boxed-Beef To Drop Back Below The $359 Area As A Potential Signal That This Seasonal May Be In-Play. This Could Impact My Short-Term Hedge Recommendations, Especially Since We’ve Gotten To Within About $4/Cwt. of The Old Record-High In Live Cattle Futures After This Past Week.
#5 “BREAD-CRUMB” ANALYSIS– Major Blogs And/Or Reports-Updates In Case You Missed Them
#6 Hedge-Tracker Recommendations Slide
