Hedge Tracker Slide In Section #5 & Supply-Demand Matrix In Section #6.
#1 Closing Video Commentary On Farm Journal
#2 Corn Crop Conditions & Global Weather Keep Analysis In-Tact:
US crop conditions remain strong (not historically strong but strong); my small crop tours the past 2 weeks of water-logged and small corn/bean plants along a perimeter roughly between I-75/I-72/US36 To The North and US 50 to the south has been supported by clients in those regions. It’s a long, narrow belt that needs to be monitored–but this market isn’t about the US crop conditions worsening, it’s about the global crop conditions worsening. And today’s trade I think proved that analysis.
Now we turn to the USDA data tomorrow, the 1st Notice Day and July Delivery starting tonight, as well as the Strait of Hormuz issues still with us & the global drought-weather situation…we see the graphics of the ships passage in the Strait showing how the number has slipped back toward where it was during the naval blockade…we are still a long way away from 100-120 ships per day. And as for the weather maps: the first two show how I think the global El Nino is already setting-up, as drought conditions in Europe and SE Asia are starting to really show-up. Similarly, the new global forecast map for precipitation in the next two weeks keeps a dry bias for the same areas in the previous two maps of the EU-Black Sea and India-SE Asia. This is why I suggested what I did in the today’s video…You can see the analog years of Dec. Corn below, with the 2010 year marked by the purple line–note how it saw the bottom at the end of June of 2010. The major cause of this rally was damage to the Russian crop, China turning to the US and Argentina as a result…while these fundamentals don’t appear before us currently, I am suggesting that I think we’re tighter in grain stocks than USDA has presented up to this point.
#4 —HEDGE RECOMMENDATIONS/HEDGE TRACKER SLIDE–
#6 —2026/27 U.S. Supply-Demand Matrix & Breakeven Levels—
#7 Previous Analysis– Major Blogs And/Or Reports-Updates In Case You Missed Them
APRIL THRU FEBRUARY 2026 IMPORTANT BLOGS ON SOYBEAN HEDGE ANALYSIS
END OF JANUARY BLOG ON SOYBEAN HEDGE ANALYSIS FOR BASE PRICE CROP INSURANCE PROTECTION
